⚠️ This article is not intended as a financial instrument or investment advice.
Bitcoin recently reached a short-term peak of 122K before entering a correction, now trading below 120K. This movement reflects a combination of short-term profit-taking and selling pressure near a psychological resistance level. At the same time, major altcoins have also declined by an average of 3–5%, following Bitcoin’s downturn. However, from a technical analysis perspective, the current decline still falls within the range of an overall upward trend, and it is too early to conclude that the main bullish momentum has been broken.
Typically, when the market confirms a short-term high and begins to pull back, analysts examine patterns such as Fibonacci Retracement (a method that uses specific highs and lows to calculate potential correction levels as ratios, identifying possible support and resistance zones), Liquidation Heatmap (a visual representation of price levels where leveraged positions are likely to be forcefully liquidated), or historically strong long-term support zones as potential rebound points. However, these are patterns we recognize from historical data; in reality, market reactions can deviate significantly when influenced by deliberate price moves or psychological triggers. Thus, investors should avoid relying solely on formulas and instead consider the current volatility environment and overall market sentiment.
This correction period is particularly noteworthy because today marks the release of the CPI (Consumer Price Index: a measure of inflation that has a direct influence on U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and market liquidity expectations). If the CPI comes in lower than expected, it could spark hopes of easing inflation, strengthen risk asset appetite, and serve as a catalyst for a rebound in the crypto market. Conversely, if the CPI exceeds expectations, renewed concerns over monetary tightening could fuel selling pressure and lead to a deeper decline.
Investor sentiment at present is a mix of “optimism” and “caution.” Some believe this is merely a short-term correction and that prices will soon head back toward the highs after the CPI release. Others warn that a negative CPI outcome could drive Bitcoin down to the 118K–116K range. In the derivatives market, leveraged positions have accumulated heavily in both long and short directions, creating the possibility of a “dual liquidation” scenario where both sides are wiped out during a volatility spike.
Trading volume data shows that Bitcoin’s volume surged at the peak but has since tapered off during the correction, suggesting that short-term buying has paused while selling pressure has not yet reached panic levels. In the altcoin market, some tokens are attempting short-term rebounds due to isolated positive catalysts, but overall, their trajectories remain closely tied to Bitcoin’s direction.
Ultimately, the depth of this correction will depend on the CPI results and the subsequent balance between buying and selling momentum. If post-CPI volatility breaks below short-term support levels, the market could enter a deeper correction phase. On the other hand, a favorable CPI reading and renewed buying pressure could trigger an early attempt to reclaim the 122K level. Investors should consider both technical analysis levels and macroeconomic event schedules while avoiding excessive leverage in this environment.
Peter's Note At this moment, high-leverage positions could wipe out both long and short traders.
Editor's Note The market now stands at an inflection point where technical analysis and macroeconomic events intersect. Tools such as Fibonacci retracement and liquidation heatmaps are valuable, but can be rendered ineffective by shifts in sentiment and external factors. Especially around macro events like CPI releases, volatility can easily double, making this period less about chasing short-term gains and more about prioritizing risk management.
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