!!! Warning: This article does not constitute investment advice. Any trading losses are the responsibility of the investor. !!!
Between Resistance and Opportunity
Bitcoin appears to be gathering strength after testing key resistance levels, hovering around $114K (BINANCE:BTCUSDT 기준) following yesterday’s rally that briefly reached $116K before retracing.
The move toward 116K was significant — that zone represents a short-term supply cluster, where heavy sell orders and profit-taking historically emerge. The pullback, therefore, may not signal weakness, but rather a healthy pause before the market decides its next direction.
Now, the question facing traders is clear: will Bitcoin defend its current position and attempt another breakout, or slip back toward the half-line to retest support once again?
Technical Overview — The 116K Rejection and the Half-Line Magnet
Bitcoin’s chart over the past 48 hours shows a textbook pattern of breakout attempt, resistance rejection, and consolidation.
- Resistance Zone: $116K — dense sell orders, a strong ceiling in the short term.
- Support Zone: $111K–$112K (the half-line) — a crucial area for maintaining bullish structure.
- Neutral Zone: $113K–$114K — the current range of indecision where traders are repositioning.
If Bitcoin holds above 113K today, the market could regain momentum and retest 115K–116K by the weekend. However, if price begins to slide toward 112K, it would suggest a temporary loss of momentum, increasing the probability of a revisit to the half-line.
The next 24 hours could thus determine whether Bitcoin continues its gradual climb toward the next channel (118K–120K) or slips back into consolidation mode.
Market Sentiment — Defense Over Aggression
Traders are approaching today with a defensive mindset.
After last week’s recovery from the “fear zone,” most are reluctant to chase high leverage or aggressive long entries at current prices.
The consensus view:
- A modest pullback is acceptable — as long as the half-line holds.
- Losing the half-line (~111K), however, could quickly reignite market anxiety and bring back short-term fear.
- Long-term conviction remains supported by institutional inflows and improving macro data, but sentiment is fragile.
This is why position management outweighs prediction right now. The market is stable, but not yet confident.
Macro Backdrop — Balancing Hope and Risk
On the positive side, optimism continues around rate cut expectations and U.S.–China trade stabilization, both of which encourage renewed capital flow into risk assets.
However, structural risks remain — particularly from global liquidity constraints and ETF inflow fatigue, as institutional buying momentum from BlackRock and Fidelity slows slightly.
This mix of optimism and caution is reflected in Bitcoin’s behavior: calm, hesitant, but technically resilient.
Waiting for Confirmation
For now, Bitcoin is resting between conviction and caution.
If it manages to stabilize around 114K and reclaim 115K+ by daily close, the path toward the next major channel (118K–120K) remains open.
But if the market drifts lower and retests 111K–112K, traders must prepare for a defensive phase — possibly even another wave of fear-driven liquidations.
The key is to avoid overconfidence. Small corrections can still hide larger shifts in sentiment.
Today’s move will set the tone for the rest of the week — either a patient climb toward higher territory, or a cautious return to the half-line battlefield.
