!!! Warning: This article does not constitute investment advice. Any trading losses are the responsibility of the investor. !!!
Introduction — Bitcoin’s Half-Line Support Breaks Again
Bitcoin has once again failed to hold its half-line support, triggering a strong sell-off across the market. As of now, Bitcoin trades near $106,900 (BINANCE), and the breakdown has led to 10–15% declines in major altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, and BNB.
Technically, the momentum has clearly shifted toward the bearish side, as traders begin to fear a retest of lower channel zones around 98K USD — a key psychological and structural support level.
Technical View — Half-Line Breakdown and 98K on the Horizon
The chart (see reference) illustrates a clear rejection around the mid-channel resistance (near 111K) followed by continuous lower highs.
Bitcoin is currently positioned below the green channel line, testing the region between 106K–107K, while the next visible support sits at 98K.
Historically, when Bitcoin loses the half-line, it often attempts a retest toward the broken zone — but the current level of fear in the market could prevent even that recovery attempt.
If the market allows another retest, traders may look for short-term opportunities to reclaim 110K. However, if fear continues to dominate, a direct drop toward 98K remains a real possibility.
Market Context — Fear Dominates, Few Catalysts Left
Across the macro landscape, the tone remains uncertain:
- Bullish Catalyst: The potential U.S. government shutdown resolution could provide a short-lived relief rally.
- Neutral Zone: Rate cut discussions are likely off the table for now.
- Bearish Overhang: Persistent macro pressure from U.S.–China trade disputes and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve continue to weigh on sentiment.
While there is room for a rebound after such heavy selling, the lack of a clear macro catalyst means any recovery may be short-lived unless major institutional inflows return.
Trader’s Outlook — Between Panic and Patience
If Bitcoin were to fall another 10% toward 98K, altcoins could decline 15–20%, following historical correlations.
At this point, traders are split:
- Short-term bears see confirmation of a deeper correction cycle.
- Cautious optimists interpret this as a necessary bottom test after the new monthly candle, paving the way for future stability.
For spot investors, gradual buying around key support levels might be considered — but futures traders should remain extremely cautious, as volatility could still spike above 10% daily.
Conclusion — The Battle Between Fear and Discipline
Bitcoin’s failure to sustain above the half-line has shifted the tone decisively.
The key question now:
Will the market find strength to reclaim 111K soon, or will it succumb to the gravity pulling it toward 98K?
In this market, fear often breeds opportunity — but only for those who act with discipline, not emotion.
