!!! Warning: This article does not constitute investment advice. Any trading losses are the responsibility of the investor. !!!
Bitcoin Finally Holds the Half-Line
Bitcoin has finally stepped above and is holding firm on the crucial half-line level, signaling a potential turning point in sentiment.
After multiple rejections earlier this week, BTC is now stabilizing near $111K (BINANCE:BTCUSDT 기준) — confirming both a successful breakout and a retest of the former resistance as new support. The fact that buyers defended this level with steady volume suggests the possibility of short-term upside momentum.
This zone is critical: if Bitcoin can continue to consolidate above it, the next target could be the upper channel between 114K–116K, where the next wave of resistance awaits.
For now, the market tone has turned cautiously optimistic, with traders watching for confirmation that this support truly holds.
Technical Overview — Support Confirmed, Next Resistance in Sight
The half-line represents a psychological and structural midpoint of Bitcoin’s current trading range.
- Support Zone: 110K–111K — successfully retested, now forming the base for potential continuation.
- Resistance Zone: 114K–116K — next checkpoint for bullish expansion.
- Momentum Indicator: RSI turning upward, hinting at recovery strength.
- Volume Trend: Gradually increasing on green candles, confirming genuine buyer participation.
From a pattern perspective, the market has printed a “break, retest, and hold” formation — a classically bullish structure suggesting that if Bitcoin maintains this range through the daily close, a short-term breakout is plausible.
Fundamental Catalysts — ETF Flows and Macro Winds
1. ETF Inflows from BlackRock & Fidelity
Institutional optimism is once again driving sentiment. The inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity have provided a stable foundation for the current rally. These funds are not speculative in nature — they represent steady, long-term demand that dampens volatility and encourages broader market confidence.
2. Policy Tailwinds — Rate Cuts & Shutdown Resolution
The macro landscape also contributes to optimism.
- The Federal Reserve’s indication of a rate-cut cycle has boosted risk-on appetite.
- The U.S. government shutdown resolution adds another relief layer, removing one source of uncertainty that previously weighed on global markets.
3. Remaining Risk — The U.S.–China Trade Standoff
Despite the improving macro tone, the U.S.–China trade tension lingers as a structural risk factor. Any renewed tariff escalation could undermine short-term confidence — particularly if it fuels a stronger dollar or triggers risk-off flows.
Trader’s Psychology — Turning Fear into Anticipation
Traders are shifting from hesitation to cautious conviction.
With Bitcoin now holding above the half-line, many see this as the technical “green light” to start layering in long positions — albeit carefully. The market’s behavior at this stage often separates disciplined traders from emotional chasers: those who entered during fear are now positioned well, while those who waited may find themselves buying into strength.
Still, discipline is key. Until Bitcoin cleanly clears the 114K resistance, upside should be viewed as measured, not euphoric. The move from fear to greed is slow — but it’s starting.
Testing Conviction, Not Just Resistance
If Bitcoin manages to stay above the 110K zone for another 24–48 hours, the case for a rally toward the next channel becomes compelling.
However, if the market slips back below 110K, traders will once again question the durability of this support.
For now, the market feels like a coiled spring: cautious, steady, and full of latent potential.
As long as macro winds remain supportive and ETF demand persists, the odds lean toward gradual continuation rather than collapse.
The half-line has now become Bitcoin’s battleground of belief — and holding it could open the path to the next rally.
